8/25/2022

Aug 25, 2022


8/25/2022
Price action was similar to Wednesday with corn and soybeans making another push in the green but no fresh August highs today. December corn traded a few cents lower most of the day and appeared weak going into the close to finish 7 lower. After trading a fresh high for August yesterday, November soybeans have largely reversed and sold off all the way into today's finish. The board had the look of wanting to punish anyone who took a long position based on the big crop tour. We mentioned earlier this week that this is not the time of year we see sustainable rallies. After spending sometime featuring sharply higher trade during the past few days, fresh length already looks like it wants out. Thursday usually brings us our weekly export sales report but the USDA had switched to some type of new format of reporting and published three different numbers. Despite the reporting errors, the consensus was an excellent week of soybean sales and an "ok" week of corn sales. The ProFarmer crop tour data found slightly above average crops in Illinois and well below average crops in Western Iowa. The remainder of Iowa is being surveyed today along with Minnesota. Full results for the tour will be released tomorrow.

Bull pennant or bull trap? After breaking out of the topside of our wedge earlier this week, November soybeans have fallen back under that topside line. Moving averages continue to converge/tighten along with down side and up side gaps still on the chart to target builds pressure for a major move in the near future.
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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.