8/25/2022

Aug 25, 2022


8/25/2022
Price action was similar to Wednesday with corn and soybeans making another push in the green but no fresh August highs today. December corn traded a few cents lower most of the day and appeared weak going into the close to finish 7 lower. After trading a fresh high for August yesterday, November soybeans have largely reversed and sold off all the way into today's finish. The board had the look of wanting to punish anyone who took a long position based on the big crop tour. We mentioned earlier this week that this is not the time of year we see sustainable rallies. After spending sometime featuring sharply higher trade during the past few days, fresh length already looks like it wants out. Thursday usually brings us our weekly export sales report but the USDA had switched to some type of new format of reporting and published three different numbers. Despite the reporting errors, the consensus was an excellent week of soybean sales and an "ok" week of corn sales. The ProFarmer crop tour data found slightly above average crops in Illinois and well below average crops in Western Iowa. The remainder of Iowa is being surveyed today along with Minnesota. Full results for the tour will be released tomorrow.

Bull pennant or bull trap? After breaking out of the topside of our wedge earlier this week, November soybeans have fallen back under that topside line. Moving averages continue to converge/tighten along with down side and up side gaps still on the chart to target builds pressure for a major move in the near future.
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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.