Grain > Commentary > 8-25-2022

8/25/2022

Aug 25, 2022

8/25/2022
Price action was similar to Wednesday with corn and soybeans making another push in the green but no fresh August highs today. December corn traded a few cents lower most of the day and appeared weak going into the close to finish 7 lower. After trading a fresh high for August yesterday, November soybeans have largely reversed and sold off all the way into today's finish. The board had the look of wanting to punish anyone who took a long position based on the big crop tour. We mentioned earlier this week that this is not the time of year we see sustainable rallies. After spending sometime featuring sharply higher trade during the past few days, fresh length already looks like it wants out. Thursday usually brings us our weekly export sales report but the USDA had switched to some type of new format of reporting and published three different numbers. Despite the reporting errors, the consensus was an excellent week of soybean sales and an "ok" week of corn sales. The ProFarmer crop tour data found slightly above average crops in Illinois and well below average crops in Western Iowa. The remainder of Iowa is being surveyed today along with Minnesota. Full results for the tour will be released tomorrow.

Bull pennant or bull trap? After breaking out of the topside of our wedge earlier this week, November soybeans have fallen back under that topside line. Moving averages continue to converge/tighten along with down side and up side gaps still on the chart to target builds pressure for a major move in the near future.
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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.