Grain > Commentary > 8-25-2021

8/25/2021

Aug 25, 2021

8/25/2021
After a weak overnight session, corn and soybeans turned higher after the morning break.  Managed money has, once again, started adding back to their net long position after liquidating their length down to a relatively small total two weeks ago.  Export business seemed to be a little quieter today and the USDA did not announce any flash sales this morning.  US soybeans are currently the cheapest globally so expect to see soybean export business perk up.  The 2022 crop futures were the big gainers today and strength in today's trade is credited to the forecasted return of a La Nina weather pattern over the next six months.  This expected to challenge the next round of corn and soybean crops in South America where there are already dry.  River levels in Argentina are currently low and this creates the real possibility that the country may not be able to barge next year's crop down river for export.  Ethanol numbers continue to slide with output off 40,000 barrels/day, down to 933,000 bpd.  Ethanol stocks were also down 335,000 barrels to 21.22 million. 

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8/12/2025
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
5/12/2025
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.