8/25/2021

Aug 25, 2021


8/25/2021
After a weak overnight session, corn and soybeans turned higher after the morning break.  Managed money has, once again, started adding back to their net long position after liquidating their length down to a relatively small total two weeks ago.  Export business seemed to be a little quieter today and the USDA did not announce any flash sales this morning.  US soybeans are currently the cheapest globally so expect to see soybean export business perk up.  The 2022 crop futures were the big gainers today and strength in today's trade is credited to the forecasted return of a La Nina weather pattern over the next six months.  This expected to challenge the next round of corn and soybean crops in South America where there are already dry.  River levels in Argentina are currently low and this creates the real possibility that the country may not be able to barge next year's crop down river for export.  Ethanol numbers continue to slide with output off 40,000 barrels/day, down to 933,000 bpd.  Ethanol stocks were also down 335,000 barrels to 21.22 million. 

Read More News

Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.