Grain > Commentary > 8-25-2021

8/25/2021

Aug 25, 2021

8/25/2021
After a weak overnight session, corn and soybeans turned higher after the morning break.  Managed money has, once again, started adding back to their net long position after liquidating their length down to a relatively small total two weeks ago.  Export business seemed to be a little quieter today and the USDA did not announce any flash sales this morning.  US soybeans are currently the cheapest globally so expect to see soybean export business perk up.  The 2022 crop futures were the big gainers today and strength in today's trade is credited to the forecasted return of a La Nina weather pattern over the next six months.  This expected to challenge the next round of corn and soybean crops in South America where there are already dry.  River levels in Argentina are currently low and this creates the real possibility that the country may not be able to barge next year's crop down river for export.  Ethanol numbers continue to slide with output off 40,000 barrels/day, down to 933,000 bpd.  Ethanol stocks were also down 335,000 barrels to 21.22 million. 

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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
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8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.