8/24/2023

Aug 24, 2023


Corn was stuck in lower trade with weaker spreads for most of the session before finding just enough life at the end of the day for a mixed finish with the Sept 23 through Jul 24 contracts closing in the red.  Soybeans continued on their bounce, picking up 6-10 cents on the day.  Soybean sales near the old gap on the chart is once again the short-term target.  Oats traded double-digits higher, closing with gains of 19-10 cents on the front months.  There may be something there to help corn bounce and ease the pain of anyone who has old crop left unpriced.  There were no USDA 8 a.m. announcements this morning.  Weekly export sales were strong for old crop soybeans with 364.9k tonnes, almost doubling the top analyst estimate.  Old crop corn had net-cancellations of 22.7k tonnes.  New crop sales were on the higher end of expectations with 673.5k tonnes of corn and 1.218 mln tonnes of soybeans sold.  We will do a full breakdown of the ProFarmer crop tour tomorrow.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.