8/24/2022

Aug 24, 2022


8/24/2022
Corn and soybeans were hot from the start of overnight trade with both seeing 10 cent gains within the first two hours.  Prices remained relatively sideways from that point into the morning break and daily highs were set almost immediately after the 8:30 open when Dec corn spiked to 16 cents higher and Nov soybeans trading a high mark close to 24 cents above the previous day's close.   Buying turned into some heavy selling, flipping corn to 10 lower and soybeans around 15 cents down, both spent the rest of the day working back towards unchanged.  This week's rumor has been a large sale of US soybeans to China and part of that was confirmed yesterday.  This morning the USDA announced another 517,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/23 marketing year.  ProFarmer tour suggests an average crop in Indiana and well below average production in Nebraska.  Weekly ethanol data showed both output and stocks up with a 4,000 barrel/day production increase from the previous week and stocks rising 361,000 barrels to a total of 23.81 mln bbls.  The extended weather outlooks show a dry/warmer bias for the end of August/beginning of September across the growing regions.  In my opinion, that is exactly what we need to get the most out of a late planted crop.

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.