Grain > Commentary > 8-24-2022

8/24/2022

Aug 24, 2022

8/24/2022
Corn and soybeans were hot from the start of overnight trade with both seeing 10 cent gains within the first two hours.  Prices remained relatively sideways from that point into the morning break and daily highs were set almost immediately after the 8:30 open when Dec corn spiked to 16 cents higher and Nov soybeans trading a high mark close to 24 cents above the previous day's close.   Buying turned into some heavy selling, flipping corn to 10 lower and soybeans around 15 cents down, both spent the rest of the day working back towards unchanged.  This week's rumor has been a large sale of US soybeans to China and part of that was confirmed yesterday.  This morning the USDA announced another 517,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/23 marketing year.  ProFarmer tour suggests an average crop in Indiana and well below average production in Nebraska.  Weekly ethanol data showed both output and stocks up with a 4,000 barrel/day production increase from the previous week and stocks rising 361,000 barrels to a total of 23.81 mln bbls.  The extended weather outlooks show a dry/warmer bias for the end of August/beginning of September across the growing regions.  In my opinion, that is exactly what we need to get the most out of a late planted crop.

outlook.png

Read More News

8/12/2025
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
5/12/2025
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.