8/24/2022

Aug 24, 2022


8/24/2022
Corn and soybeans were hot from the start of overnight trade with both seeing 10 cent gains within the first two hours.  Prices remained relatively sideways from that point into the morning break and daily highs were set almost immediately after the 8:30 open when Dec corn spiked to 16 cents higher and Nov soybeans trading a high mark close to 24 cents above the previous day's close.   Buying turned into some heavy selling, flipping corn to 10 lower and soybeans around 15 cents down, both spent the rest of the day working back towards unchanged.  This week's rumor has been a large sale of US soybeans to China and part of that was confirmed yesterday.  This morning the USDA announced another 517,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/23 marketing year.  ProFarmer tour suggests an average crop in Indiana and well below average production in Nebraska.  Weekly ethanol data showed both output and stocks up with a 4,000 barrel/day production increase from the previous week and stocks rising 361,000 barrels to a total of 23.81 mln bbls.  The extended weather outlooks show a dry/warmer bias for the end of August/beginning of September across the growing regions.  In my opinion, that is exactly what we need to get the most out of a late planted crop.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.