8/24/2021

Aug 24, 2021


8/24/2021
Another turn-around Tuesday with corn and soybeans both the beneficiary of big technical bounces higher after last week's steep losses of around 35 cents in corn and 70 cents in soybeans.  Selling into these rallies is a great approach and it was good to see some fresh new crop business done today for delivery into the elevator this fall.  The USDA confirmed two export sales for the 2021/22 marketing year with 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China and 125,300 tonnes of corn to Mexico.  It seems the PNW market had some more life throughout today and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the USDA confirm additional sales as we progress through the week.  Weekly crop progress conditions were adjusted lower for corn than what trade was expecting with the crop seen as 60% good/excellent (61% estimated, 62% last week, 64% last year).  Soybean condition at 56% g/e was on target with trade expectations (57% last week, 69% last year).  We are moving into a time of the year that can be a gray area in terms of the crop condition ratings having weight on the market as the crop closes in on full maturity.  Silage cutting is well underway with our area, reports have varied but averages seems to be hanging in the lower 20's for tonnage/acre.  Another 1.3" of rain in Murdock last night/this morning.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.