8/24/2021

Aug 24, 2021


8/24/2021
Another turn-around Tuesday with corn and soybeans both the beneficiary of big technical bounces higher after last week's steep losses of around 35 cents in corn and 70 cents in soybeans.  Selling into these rallies is a great approach and it was good to see some fresh new crop business done today for delivery into the elevator this fall.  The USDA confirmed two export sales for the 2021/22 marketing year with 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China and 125,300 tonnes of corn to Mexico.  It seems the PNW market had some more life throughout today and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the USDA confirm additional sales as we progress through the week.  Weekly crop progress conditions were adjusted lower for corn than what trade was expecting with the crop seen as 60% good/excellent (61% estimated, 62% last week, 64% last year).  Soybean condition at 56% g/e was on target with trade expectations (57% last week, 69% last year).  We are moving into a time of the year that can be a gray area in terms of the crop condition ratings having weight on the market as the crop closes in on full maturity.  Silage cutting is well underway with our area, reports have varied but averages seems to be hanging in the lower 20's for tonnage/acre.  Another 1.3" of rain in Murdock last night/this morning.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.