Grain > Commentary > 8-23-2024

8/23/2024

Aug 23, 2024

Corn trade was flat at 2 lower throughout a majority of the day to take us back to where we started the week.  Soybeans were 9-11 higher in what looks to be a dead-cat bounce in the middle of nowhere on the charts.  We've had an impressive run of export sales announcements this week, something we haven't seen in quite some time.  All sales announced were for the 2024/25 marketing year and totals for the week are as follows: 1,384,492 tonnes (approximately 50 million bushels) of soybeans for delivery to China, Mexico, and unknown; 242,490 tonnes (9.5 million bushels) of corn to Mexico and unknown; 105,000 tonnes of soybean meal to Vietnam.  On this surface, this series of sales may feel bullish but the truth is we need more to get us closer to average sales volumes for this time of the year.  It would not take much of a price rally to turn buyers away from U.S. grains.

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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.