8/23/2021

Aug 23, 2021


8/23/2021
After some big down days to finish last week, corn and soybeans found some stability on Monday.  Corn closed slightly lower but was able to trade higher for a portion of the day, garnering support from a sharply weaker dollar and Brazil corn being a premium.  Good weekend rains in the north west region of the grain belt and rumors of the EPA recommending a lower bio-fuel mandate stemmed any real momentum in corn on the day.  Soybeans improved a couple pennies today on some spillover support from crude and soybean oil.  US soybeans are currently around 50 cents/bushel cheaper than Brazil.  August sales have totaled over 90 million bushels so far and today was the first day in the past 12 that we did not see a daily export sale to China flashed.  The USDA did confirm a sale this morning, though, of 458,600 tonnes (18 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2021/22 marketing year.  Weekly export inspections were right in line with trade range estimates with 725k tonnes of corn and 214k tonnes of soybeans inspected.  Wheat outperformed expectations with 658k tonnes inspected for export vs the top estimate of 575k tonnes.  This past weekend's rain totaled 1.75" at the elevator in Murdock.

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.