Grain > Commentary > 8-22-2023

8/22/2023

Aug 22, 2023

Corn and soybeans continued to fall further from Sunday night's highs in today's session.  This morning, the USDA announced the sale of 224,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico, split evenly between the 2024/25 and 2025/26 marketing years.  A bit of a signal of poor demand for U.S. corn considering we still have the 2023/24 crop in the field but it is nice to have a sizable sale on the books.  ProFarmer tour is going on this week and found above average crops in South Dakota and Ohio.  We will break down the full numbers at the end of the week when the tour is completed.  Historically, the crop tours do not come close to the final yields from the USDA but we are beginning to collect enough information to calculate an expected difference between ProFarmer and USDA over the years.  With a lack of anything else happening to move the market, outlooks are steady/lower as we migrate towards harvest.

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10/9/2026
Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.