Grain > Commentary > 8-22-2023

8/22/2023

Aug 22, 2023

Corn and soybeans continued to fall further from Sunday night's highs in today's session.  This morning, the USDA announced the sale of 224,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico, split evenly between the 2024/25 and 2025/26 marketing years.  A bit of a signal of poor demand for U.S. corn considering we still have the 2023/24 crop in the field but it is nice to have a sizable sale on the books.  ProFarmer tour is going on this week and found above average crops in South Dakota and Ohio.  We will break down the full numbers at the end of the week when the tour is completed.  Historically, the crop tours do not come close to the final yields from the USDA but we are beginning to collect enough information to calculate an expected difference between ProFarmer and USDA over the years.  With a lack of anything else happening to move the market, outlooks are steady/lower as we migrate towards harvest.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.