Grain > Commentary > 8-22-2023

8/22/2023

Aug 22, 2023

Corn and soybeans continued to fall further from Sunday night's highs in today's session.  This morning, the USDA announced the sale of 224,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico, split evenly between the 2024/25 and 2025/26 marketing years.  A bit of a signal of poor demand for U.S. corn considering we still have the 2023/24 crop in the field but it is nice to have a sizable sale on the books.  ProFarmer tour is going on this week and found above average crops in South Dakota and Ohio.  We will break down the full numbers at the end of the week when the tour is completed.  Historically, the crop tours do not come close to the final yields from the USDA but we are beginning to collect enough information to calculate an expected difference between ProFarmer and USDA over the years.  With a lack of anything else happening to move the market, outlooks are steady/lower as we migrate towards harvest.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.