Grain > Commentary > 8-2-2024

8/2/2024

Aug 02, 2024

Corn and soybeans bounce back off of yesterday's fresh lows.  Market news remains limited and money flow drives direction.  Overall, the U.S. crop appears to be in nice shape and conditions have been nearly ideal for crop development.  The most notable headline has been China steadily picking up their purchases of new crop soybeans.  Yesterday, the USDA confirmed 132,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China.  This was followed up by an additional 202,000 tonnes announced this morning.  That is roughly 12.25 million bushels total for those two sales.  It is always good to see China come up in these flash sales but new crop bookings are behind their averages.  We need more.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.