Grain > Commentary > 8-2-2024

8/2/2024

Aug 02, 2024

Corn and soybeans bounce back off of yesterday's fresh lows.  Market news remains limited and money flow drives direction.  Overall, the U.S. crop appears to be in nice shape and conditions have been nearly ideal for crop development.  The most notable headline has been China steadily picking up their purchases of new crop soybeans.  Yesterday, the USDA confirmed 132,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China.  This was followed up by an additional 202,000 tonnes announced this morning.  That is roughly 12.25 million bushels total for those two sales.  It is always good to see China come up in these flash sales but new crop bookings are behind their averages.  We need more.

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.