8/2/2022

Corn down 11-15 cents and soybeans off another 14-19 cents to end a second consecutive day of sharp losses. Managed money remains sidelined with the U.S. crop in decent shape and grain readily available globally. Trade was sent further into risk-off with the weekly crop ratings coming in better than expected and political tensions between the U.S. and China intensifying following a diplomatic visit from the Speaker of the House to Taiwan. China immediately made a series of announcements and military "exercises" following Pelosi's arrival in Taipei. Trade was concerned about what it could mean for grain export business to China. Corn conditions were unchanged from last week at 61% good/excellent. Silking and doughing have been steady at 5% behind the 5-year averages. Soybean condition improved from 59% good/excellent to 60%. Blooming and pods are just short of their respective 5-year averages. Regardless of what the drought monitor says, professional crop tours are seeing an average corn crop, or better, so far through different areas of South Dakota, Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois.

Last week’s weather rally is close to being priced out of the market. The 200-day moving average appears to have become resistance for now. Real potential for an island top here.