8/2/2021

Aug 02, 2021


8/2/2021
Corn erased Friday's losses and soybeans closed with modest gains as money was buying back in to start a fresh month.  Wheat has established itself as the price leader and offered spill-over support to the corn and soybean sectors.  Fundamentally, there was little change over the weekend.  The north western region of the corn belt remains dry and warm, demand has slowed, and ethanol seems to be the only market willing to accept corn but they have been competitive with each other.  Looking at the charts today, corn key reversed higher out to July 2022, putting September 21 back above its 100-day moving average and December 21 above its 50-day moving average.  November soybeans continue on their up-trend from the June 17th low of 1240'4 futures but have been finding some resistance at the 50-day moving average.  Weekly export inspections in corn came in above expectations with 1.384 mln tonnes inspected for export.  The top estimate was 1.2 mln tonnes.  Soybeans and wheat were both within their trade estimates with 181k tonnes of beans and 388k tonnes of wheat inspected for export.  Temperatures look to remain closer to seasonal average but there is not much rain in the forecast for our area over the next 10 days.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.