8/2/2021

Aug 02, 2021


8/2/2021
Corn erased Friday's losses and soybeans closed with modest gains as money was buying back in to start a fresh month.  Wheat has established itself as the price leader and offered spill-over support to the corn and soybean sectors.  Fundamentally, there was little change over the weekend.  The north western region of the corn belt remains dry and warm, demand has slowed, and ethanol seems to be the only market willing to accept corn but they have been competitive with each other.  Looking at the charts today, corn key reversed higher out to July 2022, putting September 21 back above its 100-day moving average and December 21 above its 50-day moving average.  November soybeans continue on their up-trend from the June 17th low of 1240'4 futures but have been finding some resistance at the 50-day moving average.  Weekly export inspections in corn came in above expectations with 1.384 mln tonnes inspected for export.  The top estimate was 1.2 mln tonnes.  Soybeans and wheat were both within their trade estimates with 181k tonnes of beans and 388k tonnes of wheat inspected for export.  Temperatures look to remain closer to seasonal average but there is not much rain in the forecast for our area over the next 10 days.

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.