Grain > Commentary > 8-2-2021

8/2/2021

Aug 02, 2021

8/2/2021
Corn erased Friday's losses and soybeans closed with modest gains as money was buying back in to start a fresh month.  Wheat has established itself as the price leader and offered spill-over support to the corn and soybean sectors.  Fundamentally, there was little change over the weekend.  The north western region of the corn belt remains dry and warm, demand has slowed, and ethanol seems to be the only market willing to accept corn but they have been competitive with each other.  Looking at the charts today, corn key reversed higher out to July 2022, putting September 21 back above its 100-day moving average and December 21 above its 50-day moving average.  November soybeans continue on their up-trend from the June 17th low of 1240'4 futures but have been finding some resistance at the 50-day moving average.  Weekly export inspections in corn came in above expectations with 1.384 mln tonnes inspected for export.  The top estimate was 1.2 mln tonnes.  Soybeans and wheat were both within their trade estimates with 181k tonnes of beans and 388k tonnes of wheat inspected for export.  Temperatures look to remain closer to seasonal average but there is not much rain in the forecast for our area over the next 10 days.

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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.