Grain > Commentary > 8-19-2021

8/19/2021

Aug 19, 2021

8/19/2021
Today felt like a commodity sell off day in general.  Coronavirus fears are becoming more realistic again, which brings uncertainty to the grains.  The US dollar is up over 400 ticks again today making new highs for the year, which is bearish grain exports.  The Pro Farmer Crop Tour continues to show generally positive corn yield estimates and pod counts and today was no different.  We will get their final numbers tomorrow afternoon.  The Funds remain long the grains, but are slowing slimming down that length as harvest is quickly approaching.  We had yet another day of USDA daily sales announcements making it 11 days in a row with 263,000 tonnes of new crop beans sold to China and 148,590 tonnes to Mexico.  It feels like forever ago that we have seen any corn sales show up, so we wait.  Corn basis for old crop is starting to melt down as local plants dropped a dime or more today.  Remember how fast bean basis went to new crop values when it happened a month ago and corn is about to do the same.  There is no magic date that it happens, but when it does it will be ugly.  So, if you have old crop corn in the bin you are planning move you better decide soon.  It’s like a falling knife, so be careful.  The corn futures are not your main risk at the moment.  It is the 60 cents of premium in the basis that I am talking about.     
 

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.