8/19/2021

Today felt like a commodity sell off day in general.  Coronavirus fears are becoming more realistic again, which brings uncertainty to the grains.  The US dollar is up over 400 ticks again today making new highs for the year, which is bearish grain exports.  The Pro Farmer Crop Tour continues to show generally positive corn yield estimates and pod counts and today was no different.  We will get their final numbers tomorrow afternoon.  The Funds remain long the grains, but are slowing slimming down that length as harvest is quickly approaching.  We had yet another day of USDA daily sales announcements making it 11 days in a row with 263,000 tonnes of new crop beans sold to China and 148,590 tonnes to Mexico.  It feels like forever ago that we have seen any corn sales show up, so we wait.  Corn basis for old crop is starting to melt down as local plants dropped a dime or more today.  Remember how fast bean basis went to new crop values when it happened a month ago and corn is about to do the same.  There is no magic date that it happens, but when it does it will be ugly.  So, if you have old crop corn in the bin you are planning move you better decide soon.  It’s like a falling knife, so be careful.  The corn futures are not your main risk at the moment.  It is the 60 cents of premium in the basis that I am talking about.