8/17/2022

Aug 17, 2022


8/17/2022
Corn and soybeans were able to find a bid in some slightly lower trade overnight and hold onto modest gains on the day.  November soybeans touched the 1400'0 level twice and was sold off quickly on both trips.  Following two days of sharply lower trade to start our week, trade looked like corrective action more than anything else for Wednesday.  Soybean meal was supportive to beans but double-digit lower trade across wheat acted as an anchor towards corn and soybeans, limiting gains on the day.  December corn appears to be consolidating between the 20 and 50-day moving averages and November soybeans are once again trading below most major moving averages.  Weekly ethanol numbers implied lower demand with a cut in daily production of 39,000 barrels/day down to 983,000 bpd and stocks increasing 190,000 barrels to 23.446 million barrels.  Corn use for ethanol for 2021/22 is on pace to exceed the previous year by 170 million bushels but is also roughly 30 million bushels short of meeting the USDA number at the same time.  There were no export sale announcements this morning.  Extended weather outlooks continue to favor crop finishing into September.  As long as those weather models stay consistent, price gains will remain limited.

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Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.