8/17/2022

Aug 17, 2022


8/17/2022
Corn and soybeans were able to find a bid in some slightly lower trade overnight and hold onto modest gains on the day.  November soybeans touched the 1400'0 level twice and was sold off quickly on both trips.  Following two days of sharply lower trade to start our week, trade looked like corrective action more than anything else for Wednesday.  Soybean meal was supportive to beans but double-digit lower trade across wheat acted as an anchor towards corn and soybeans, limiting gains on the day.  December corn appears to be consolidating between the 20 and 50-day moving averages and November soybeans are once again trading below most major moving averages.  Weekly ethanol numbers implied lower demand with a cut in daily production of 39,000 barrels/day down to 983,000 bpd and stocks increasing 190,000 barrels to 23.446 million barrels.  Corn use for ethanol for 2021/22 is on pace to exceed the previous year by 170 million bushels but is also roughly 30 million bushels short of meeting the USDA number at the same time.  There were no export sale announcements this morning.  Extended weather outlooks continue to favor crop finishing into September.  As long as those weather models stay consistent, price gains will remain limited.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.