Grain > Commentary > 8-17-2021

8/17/2021

Aug 17, 2021

8/17/2021
Overnight trade was two-sided but quiet and faded lower throughout the day session.  Yesterday's drop in good/excellent crop condition ratings of 2% in corn and 3% in soybeans was unexpected but did not shock trade.  ProFarmer tour is making its way through Nebraska and Indiana today and early reports are showing some impressive crops out there and receiving most of the credit for the sell pressure on the market today.  USDA made a couple 8am sales announcements this morning with 198,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for the 2021/22 marketing year and 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown also for the 21/22 marketing year.  Weekly export inspections from yesterday were just snuck in just above the bottom estimates with 667k tonnes of corn and 114k tonnes of soybeans inspected.  Both are close to the pace needed to meet the USDA's yearly target but have fallen off drastically over the past month.

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8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
8/12/2025
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.