8/16/2021

Aug 16, 2021


8/16/2021
Overnight markets were mixed but mostly stronger throughout the session.  Corn spent a majority of the day session inside of a 4-cent range and closed 2-4 lower to the start the week.  Soybeans continue to be well supported by dryness in a large portion of the western corn belt and some hot temperatures over the next few days.  A quick glance at the daily chart shows that soybeans are building some momentum towards a potential break-out out of the top side of their current trading ranges.  The USDA made another 8am sales announcement with another 132,000 tonnes of soybeans sold to unknown for the 2021/2022 marketing year.  The ProFarmer crop tour kicked off today with South Dakota and Ohio being the first states surveyed.  The tour will last through Thursday with final numbers out to the public at the end of the week.  It will definitely be interesting to compare the tour numbers to the USDA’s August estimates as most of the tour fields seem to be in very good condition.  Weekly crop conditions are expected to show a 1% improvement in corn and unchanged on soybeans.  NOPA July crush numbers were disappointing with 155.1 million bushels vs 159 million estimated.  Soy oil stocks show 1.617 billion pounds vs 1.505 billion pounds expected.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.