Grain > Commentary > 8-16-2021

8/16/2021

Aug 16, 2021

8/16/2021
Overnight markets were mixed but mostly stronger throughout the session.  Corn spent a majority of the day session inside of a 4-cent range and closed 2-4 lower to the start the week.  Soybeans continue to be well supported by dryness in a large portion of the western corn belt and some hot temperatures over the next few days.  A quick glance at the daily chart shows that soybeans are building some momentum towards a potential break-out out of the top side of their current trading ranges.  The USDA made another 8am sales announcement with another 132,000 tonnes of soybeans sold to unknown for the 2021/2022 marketing year.  The ProFarmer crop tour kicked off today with South Dakota and Ohio being the first states surveyed.  The tour will last through Thursday with final numbers out to the public at the end of the week.  It will definitely be interesting to compare the tour numbers to the USDA’s August estimates as most of the tour fields seem to be in very good condition.  Weekly crop conditions are expected to show a 1% improvement in corn and unchanged on soybeans.  NOPA July crush numbers were disappointing with 155.1 million bushels vs 159 million estimated.  Soy oil stocks show 1.617 billion pounds vs 1.505 billion pounds expected.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.