8/13/2021

Aug 13, 2021


8/13/2021
Yesterday's WASDE report gave the markets a shot of life with some friendly numbers after the USDA shocked the market with a 5 bu/ac cut in the 2021 corn yield compared to last month.  Corn and soybeans both finished well off their highs yesterday but follow-through buying supported the market today.  Soybeans failed to break higher on yesterday's report but corn did break out of its 4-week trading range.  Trade is unwilling to test current highs and long-term consolidation remains intact with corn and beans both finishing the week near the mid-points of their multi-month trading ranges.  A few important things to watch going forward from here are crop finishing rains, how the current US grain prices compare globally and how they may affect future export sales, and the FSA's initial acre report implying that it is likely the USDA still has corn and soybean acres understated.  September corn futures finished 13 higher for the week but cash only posted a 3-cent gain from last Friday with basis beginning to slip with end-users gaining coverage ahead of harvest.  Delivered new crop corn performed well this week, posting a 17-cent gain.  Weekly close for cash beans is 19 cents higher and new crop beans picked up a healthy 34 cents on the week.  Everyone have a wonderful weekend!

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.