Grain > Commentary > 8-12-2024

8/12/2024

Aug 12, 2024

The USDA's August WASDE report gave the market more than just a snack to chew on. We are finally seeing some official numbers get hashed up after a planting season that had many wondering about acres. The report was brutal for soybeans which got hit with a double whammy in the acres and yield departments. Most notable changes: one million acres were switched from corn to soybeans and the Illinois corn crop was pegged at 225 bu/ac (203 bu/ac in 2023). Today's report balloons the forecasted U.S. soybean 2024/25 carryout by over 28% to 560 million bushels.

A fair amount of number shuffling on the U.S. corn balance sheet this month. Old crop numbers: netted a 10 million bushel decrease to the carryout. New crop side: 700k acres cut and a 75 million bushel increase to exports lower the forecasted ending stocks by 24 million bushels even after the USDA shocked with a big 183.1 avg yield for the U.S.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.