Grain > Commentary > 8-12-2024

8/12/2024

Aug 12, 2024

The USDA's August WASDE report gave the market more than just a snack to chew on. We are finally seeing some official numbers get hashed up after a planting season that had many wondering about acres. The report was brutal for soybeans which got hit with a double whammy in the acres and yield departments. Most notable changes: one million acres were switched from corn to soybeans and the Illinois corn crop was pegged at 225 bu/ac (203 bu/ac in 2023). Today's report balloons the forecasted U.S. soybean 2024/25 carryout by over 28% to 560 million bushels.

A fair amount of number shuffling on the U.S. corn balance sheet this month. Old crop numbers: netted a 10 million bushel decrease to the carryout. New crop side: 700k acres cut and a 75 million bushel increase to exports lower the forecasted ending stocks by 24 million bushels even after the USDA shocked with a big 183.1 avg yield for the U.S.

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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.