8/11/2022

Aug 11, 2022


8/11/2022
December corn closed higher for the seventh consecutive day and soybeans jump double digits one day ahead of the USDA's August WASDE report.  Trade has a bullish sentiment anticipating yield cuts to the 2022 crops.  Along with the stocks and acres reports released at the end of June, the USDA announced they would resurvey soybean acres in the Dakotas and Minnesota specifically for this report.  Will they find more or less? Trade is betting on less, which has help lift November beans near a $1.60/bu off of their 8-month lows.  This is not the time of year we typically see a big futures rally so if you are looking to do some catch-up marketing, targets should remain relatively within an arm's reach of our current price levels.  This is one of the more important reports we get from the USDA and volatility is sure to be high tomorrow.  This is the perfect situation for working sell orders to catch potential price spikes.  Last year's August report was very bullish and the market sold it off afterwards.  Whether you want to do HTA's or new crop delivery, look to target the areas around 650'0 on December corn and 1470'0 on November soybeans.  We've seen a fair amount of export sale activity and announcements recently with another coming this morning of 103,400 tonnes of soybean cake for delivery to Mexico in the 2022/23 marketing year.

December corn finally closed above the 200-day moving average after failing in the previous four attempts. Good start for those looking for higher trade.
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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.