8/11/2022

Aug 11, 2022


8/11/2022
December corn closed higher for the seventh consecutive day and soybeans jump double digits one day ahead of the USDA's August WASDE report.  Trade has a bullish sentiment anticipating yield cuts to the 2022 crops.  Along with the stocks and acres reports released at the end of June, the USDA announced they would resurvey soybean acres in the Dakotas and Minnesota specifically for this report.  Will they find more or less? Trade is betting on less, which has help lift November beans near a $1.60/bu off of their 8-month lows.  This is not the time of year we typically see a big futures rally so if you are looking to do some catch-up marketing, targets should remain relatively within an arm's reach of our current price levels.  This is one of the more important reports we get from the USDA and volatility is sure to be high tomorrow.  This is the perfect situation for working sell orders to catch potential price spikes.  Last year's August report was very bullish and the market sold it off afterwards.  Whether you want to do HTA's or new crop delivery, look to target the areas around 650'0 on December corn and 1470'0 on November soybeans.  We've seen a fair amount of export sale activity and announcements recently with another coming this morning of 103,400 tonnes of soybean cake for delivery to Mexico in the 2022/23 marketing year.

December corn finally closed above the 200-day moving average after failing in the previous four attempts. Good start for those looking for higher trade.
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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.