8/11/2021

Aug 11, 2021


8/11/2021
Overnight saw soybeans stronger with double digit gains supporting the corn sector.  We did see some profit taking with the 8:30am open being sold but corn had recovered by mid-day and remained mostly stagnant through the rest of the session.  New crop soybeans finished in the green for the day but were well off of their highs.  Export business for new crop is starting to pick up and the PNW market has been fairly active over the past week.  The USDA confirmed another export sale at 8 a.m. this morning with 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for the 2021/22 marketing year.  The weekly ethanol report showed production was down 27,000 bpd from the previous week to 986,000 bpd.  Ethanol stocks declined 373,000 bbls to 22.28 million barrels.  End-user direct remains as the only reliable market for old crop corn.  Be careful not to hold your old crop for too long, at some point, the end-user will achieve coverage to bridge themselves into the new crop delivery period.  This likely won't happen for another 4-5 weeks but, when it does, basis will deteriorate and we will be at new crop values well before harvest; similar to what we have seen in soybeans over the past 2 weeks.  The August WASDE report will be released at 11 a.m. tomorrow.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.