Grain > Commentary > 8-1-2022

8/1/2022

Aug 01, 2022

8/1/2022
Major pressure on the market from multiple angles geared trade towards risk-off early into the overnight session.  Updated weather models showed relief from previously forecasted high temps along with increased probabilities of rain across the growing regions.  The Oklahoma/Texas panhandles and Southwestern Kansas also received good amounts of much needed moisture over the weekend.  Crude oil traded $5-6/barrel lower early this morning but did recover slightly.  A vessel loaded with corn departed from Ukraine for the first time since late February and it is reported there are an additional 16 vessels loaded and ready to sail.  A lot of negativities to start the week and a prime set up for a turnaround Tuesday after corn and soybeans both finished well off of their lows on the day and trade is expecting another decline in crop conditions in this week's progress report.  Weekly export inspections were decent for corn and soybeans with 857k tonnes of corn and 555k tonnes of soybeans inspected for shipment.  With one month to go, corn exceeds the pace needed to hit the USDA export target by 74 million bushels and soybean pace falls short by 49 million bushels.  Early crop tours are starting this week and we will keep you up to date with those results.
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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.