8/1/2022

Aug 01, 2022


8/1/2022
Major pressure on the market from multiple angles geared trade towards risk-off early into the overnight session.  Updated weather models showed relief from previously forecasted high temps along with increased probabilities of rain across the growing regions.  The Oklahoma/Texas panhandles and Southwestern Kansas also received good amounts of much needed moisture over the weekend.  Crude oil traded $5-6/barrel lower early this morning but did recover slightly.  A vessel loaded with corn departed from Ukraine for the first time since late February and it is reported there are an additional 16 vessels loaded and ready to sail.  A lot of negativities to start the week and a prime set up for a turnaround Tuesday after corn and soybeans both finished well off of their lows on the day and trade is expecting another decline in crop conditions in this week's progress report.  Weekly export inspections were decent for corn and soybeans with 857k tonnes of corn and 555k tonnes of soybeans inspected for shipment.  With one month to go, corn exceeds the pace needed to hit the USDA export target by 74 million bushels and soybean pace falls short by 49 million bushels.  Early crop tours are starting this week and we will keep you up to date with those results.
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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.