Grain > Commentary > 8-1-2022

8/1/2022

Aug 01, 2022

8/1/2022
Major pressure on the market from multiple angles geared trade towards risk-off early into the overnight session.  Updated weather models showed relief from previously forecasted high temps along with increased probabilities of rain across the growing regions.  The Oklahoma/Texas panhandles and Southwestern Kansas also received good amounts of much needed moisture over the weekend.  Crude oil traded $5-6/barrel lower early this morning but did recover slightly.  A vessel loaded with corn departed from Ukraine for the first time since late February and it is reported there are an additional 16 vessels loaded and ready to sail.  A lot of negativities to start the week and a prime set up for a turnaround Tuesday after corn and soybeans both finished well off of their lows on the day and trade is expecting another decline in crop conditions in this week's progress report.  Weekly export inspections were decent for corn and soybeans with 857k tonnes of corn and 555k tonnes of soybeans inspected for shipment.  With one month to go, corn exceeds the pace needed to hit the USDA export target by 74 million bushels and soybean pace falls short by 49 million bushels.  Early crop tours are starting this week and we will keep you up to date with those results.
outlook.png

Read More News

9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.