8/1/2022

Aug 01, 2022


8/1/2022
Major pressure on the market from multiple angles geared trade towards risk-off early into the overnight session.  Updated weather models showed relief from previously forecasted high temps along with increased probabilities of rain across the growing regions.  The Oklahoma/Texas panhandles and Southwestern Kansas also received good amounts of much needed moisture over the weekend.  Crude oil traded $5-6/barrel lower early this morning but did recover slightly.  A vessel loaded with corn departed from Ukraine for the first time since late February and it is reported there are an additional 16 vessels loaded and ready to sail.  A lot of negativities to start the week and a prime set up for a turnaround Tuesday after corn and soybeans both finished well off of their lows on the day and trade is expecting another decline in crop conditions in this week's progress report.  Weekly export inspections were decent for corn and soybeans with 857k tonnes of corn and 555k tonnes of soybeans inspected for shipment.  With one month to go, corn exceeds the pace needed to hit the USDA export target by 74 million bushels and soybean pace falls short by 49 million bushels.  Early crop tours are starting this week and we will keep you up to date with those results.
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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.