Grain > Commentary > 7-9-2024

7/9/2024

Jul 09, 2024

Corn and wheat hung around either side of unchanged throughout Tuesday while soybeans took another hard hit. It has not been seen in any type of official report but we can probably assume that the funds are now at record large short positions for corn and soybeans. The funds are firmly in control and this is our market until the funds decide otherwise. The weekly crop conditions update didn't offer anything to help stabilize trade and showed net improvements on the week for corn and soybeans to 68% good/excellent for both.

4-year market cycle for corn. Front month hanging above our bullish breakout point from Aug. 2020. Cannot emphasize how bearish it is If the September contract is below that breakout point (393’0) when July expires.

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6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.