Grain > Commentary > 7-9-2024

7/9/2024

Jul 09, 2024

Corn and wheat hung around either side of unchanged throughout Tuesday while soybeans took another hard hit. It has not been seen in any type of official report but we can probably assume that the funds are now at record large short positions for corn and soybeans. The funds are firmly in control and this is our market until the funds decide otherwise. The weekly crop conditions update didn't offer anything to help stabilize trade and showed net improvements on the week for corn and soybeans to 68% good/excellent for both.

4-year market cycle for corn. Front month hanging above our bullish breakout point from Aug. 2020. Cannot emphasize how bearish it is If the September contract is below that breakout point (393’0) when July expires.

Read More News

8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
8/12/2025
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
5/12/2025
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.