Grain > Commentary > 7-9-2024

7/9/2024

Jul 09, 2024

Corn and wheat hung around either side of unchanged throughout Tuesday while soybeans took another hard hit. It has not been seen in any type of official report but we can probably assume that the funds are now at record large short positions for corn and soybeans. The funds are firmly in control and this is our market until the funds decide otherwise. The weekly crop conditions update didn't offer anything to help stabilize trade and showed net improvements on the week for corn and soybeans to 68% good/excellent for both.

4-year market cycle for corn. Front month hanging above our bullish breakout point from Aug. 2020. Cannot emphasize how bearish it is If the September contract is below that breakout point (393’0) when July expires.

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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
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8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.