Grain > Commentary > 7-8-2021

7/8/2021

Jul 08, 2021

7/8/2021
Uneasy and uncomfortable back-and-forth trade as weather outlooks and crop conditions continue to appear favorable.  Again, markets started off stronger overnight and showed signs of upward momentum throughout the day but late session weakness set in and new crop corn and soybeans continue to test the support of their 100-day moving averages.  Corn finished lower on the day despite Brazil's CONAB releasing their monthly supply and demand figures, cutting their expected corn crop by 3 million metric tonnes.  CONAB also increased their soybean crop by another 45.5 million bushels.  It's still strange to me that we are told both of Brazil corn crops are ravaged by drought but their soybean crop continues to increase.  Back on the home (U.S.) front, varying reports from around the grain belt tell us most everyone's crop is in good shape except their neighbor's.  By no means is the crop even close to being made yet but there's still plenty of potential for anyone bullish to end up surprised by a big U.S. corn crop.  This morning, the USDA confirmed a sale of 122,200 tonnes of soybean to Mexico for the 2021/2022 marketing year.  As of about 1:30 pm, the DOW was down 360 points, partially recovering from a 580-point dip on the day.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.