7/7/2022

Jul 07, 2022


7/7/2022
A healthy corrective bounce back in the green with corn and soybeans still in severely oversold conditions.  The September 22-May 23 corn contracts filled their respective gaps left on the chart from Tuesday's 8:30am hard open.  The gap fill was quickly sold off, session highs were set, and December corn spent the rest of the day working to get back to the 600'0 level.  Soybeans have yet to fill any of the gap area overhead.  Weekly ethanol data showed producers down 7,000 barrels/day from the previous week to 1.044 mln bpd.  Ethanol stocks grew 744k barrels to 23.49 million barrels.  Weekly export sales data is usually released on Thursdays but is delayed until Friday this week due to the July 4th holiday on Monday.  Extended weather forecasts have been favoring warm and dry weather for the second half of July providing some support to the market going forward.  With corn pollination and tasseling coming quickly, the next few weeks will be the most important in determining market direction.  Big up-side in the market is still possible and conditions in Brazil have yet to be factored in for their first crop.  Overall, demand has been sluggish as of late with export sales virtually at zero and end-users only buying what they need when they need it.

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.