7/7/2022

Jul 07, 2022


7/7/2022
A healthy corrective bounce back in the green with corn and soybeans still in severely oversold conditions.  The September 22-May 23 corn contracts filled their respective gaps left on the chart from Tuesday's 8:30am hard open.  The gap fill was quickly sold off, session highs were set, and December corn spent the rest of the day working to get back to the 600'0 level.  Soybeans have yet to fill any of the gap area overhead.  Weekly ethanol data showed producers down 7,000 barrels/day from the previous week to 1.044 mln bpd.  Ethanol stocks grew 744k barrels to 23.49 million barrels.  Weekly export sales data is usually released on Thursdays but is delayed until Friday this week due to the July 4th holiday on Monday.  Extended weather forecasts have been favoring warm and dry weather for the second half of July providing some support to the market going forward.  With corn pollination and tasseling coming quickly, the next few weeks will be the most important in determining market direction.  Big up-side in the market is still possible and conditions in Brazil have yet to be factored in for their first crop.  Overall, demand has been sluggish as of late with export sales virtually at zero and end-users only buying what they need when they need it.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.