7/7/2022

Jul 07, 2022


7/7/2022
A healthy corrective bounce back in the green with corn and soybeans still in severely oversold conditions.  The September 22-May 23 corn contracts filled their respective gaps left on the chart from Tuesday's 8:30am hard open.  The gap fill was quickly sold off, session highs were set, and December corn spent the rest of the day working to get back to the 600'0 level.  Soybeans have yet to fill any of the gap area overhead.  Weekly ethanol data showed producers down 7,000 barrels/day from the previous week to 1.044 mln bpd.  Ethanol stocks grew 744k barrels to 23.49 million barrels.  Weekly export sales data is usually released on Thursdays but is delayed until Friday this week due to the July 4th holiday on Monday.  Extended weather forecasts have been favoring warm and dry weather for the second half of July providing some support to the market going forward.  With corn pollination and tasseling coming quickly, the next few weeks will be the most important in determining market direction.  Big up-side in the market is still possible and conditions in Brazil have yet to be factored in for their first crop.  Overall, demand has been sluggish as of late with export sales virtually at zero and end-users only buying what they need when they need it.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.