Grain > Commentary > 7-7-2022

7/7/2022

Jul 07, 2022

7/7/2022
A healthy corrective bounce back in the green with corn and soybeans still in severely oversold conditions.  The September 22-May 23 corn contracts filled their respective gaps left on the chart from Tuesday's 8:30am hard open.  The gap fill was quickly sold off, session highs were set, and December corn spent the rest of the day working to get back to the 600'0 level.  Soybeans have yet to fill any of the gap area overhead.  Weekly ethanol data showed producers down 7,000 barrels/day from the previous week to 1.044 mln bpd.  Ethanol stocks grew 744k barrels to 23.49 million barrels.  Weekly export sales data is usually released on Thursdays but is delayed until Friday this week due to the July 4th holiday on Monday.  Extended weather forecasts have been favoring warm and dry weather for the second half of July providing some support to the market going forward.  With corn pollination and tasseling coming quickly, the next few weeks will be the most important in determining market direction.  Big up-side in the market is still possible and conditions in Brazil have yet to be factored in for their first crop.  Overall, demand has been sluggish as of late with export sales virtually at zero and end-users only buying what they need when they need it.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.