Grain > Commentary > 7-6-2023

7/6/2023

Jul 06, 2023

7/6/2023
A rinse-and-repeat day in terms of price action and news as corn closes Thursday higher with double-digit gains out to July 24 and soybeans finish with with 11-22 cent losses on the day. The past two days have been good, corrective moves following trade's reaction to the USDA's surprise numbers for acres in the quarterly report last week. If looking to do new crop marketing, anything over $5 delivered for corn and anything close to $13.50 for soybeans should definitely be considered as we proceed through July. Given the past couple years, it's easy to understand why corn may be perceived as "cheap" by some but, in reality, the U.S. is still in the neighborhood of a 50 cent/bu premium to Brazil. Brazil's biggest issue right now is storage and logistics. The U.S. can thank the back-log of shipments out of Brazil for bringing any type of old crop business our direction. The weekly ethanol report showed production up 8,000 barrels/day to 1.06 million bpd. Stocks were off by 719,000 down to 22.26 mln barrels.

Weather outlooks appear favorable as the grain belt nears tasseling and pollination.
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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.