Grain > Commentary > 7-6-2023

7/6/2023

Jul 06, 2023

7/6/2023
A rinse-and-repeat day in terms of price action and news as corn closes Thursday higher with double-digit gains out to July 24 and soybeans finish with with 11-22 cent losses on the day. The past two days have been good, corrective moves following trade's reaction to the USDA's surprise numbers for acres in the quarterly report last week. If looking to do new crop marketing, anything over $5 delivered for corn and anything close to $13.50 for soybeans should definitely be considered as we proceed through July. Given the past couple years, it's easy to understand why corn may be perceived as "cheap" by some but, in reality, the U.S. is still in the neighborhood of a 50 cent/bu premium to Brazil. Brazil's biggest issue right now is storage and logistics. The U.S. can thank the back-log of shipments out of Brazil for bringing any type of old crop business our direction. The weekly ethanol report showed production up 8,000 barrels/day to 1.06 million bpd. Stocks were off by 719,000 down to 22.26 mln barrels.

Weather outlooks appear favorable as the grain belt nears tasseling and pollination.
outlook.png

Read More News

11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.