7/6/2021

Jul 06, 2021


7/6/2021
After the long holiday weekend that included high temperatures across the grain belt, a break in the heat wave was welcomed along with some rain in our local area, as well as, a big portion of Minnesota and the Dakotas.  Opening calls were for a lower market this morning but I don't think opening limit lower on corn was something many expected.  Today's corn trade was over as fast as it started.  Beans also took a big hit, opening 25 lower and closing 89-94 lower on the day.   It will be interesting to see how much length the managed money has remaining and we now have some big gaps on the new crop futures charts but still plenty of time to fill them.  Weekly export inspections for corn were big, but mid-range of expectations, at 1.236 mln tonnes.  Soybean inspections were also within trade estimates at 206k tonnes and wheat underperformed last week at 258k tonnes inspected.  The grain stocks and planted acres report is now old news and trade will put more emphasis on next week's July WASDE report.  Weekly crop condition ratings for this week are expected to be unchanged from last week in corn and soybeans and slightly lower in spring wheat.  As of about 1:30pm, rain total for the day in Murdock was 1.7".  Better late than never! 

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.