Grain > Commentary > 7-30-2021

7/30/2021

Jul 30, 2021

7/30/2021
A big risk-off day to finish our week and the trading month as rain showers pushed across parts of South Dakota, Iowa, and the southern half of Minnesota throughout the day.  The timing of this rain (going into August) is probably more important for soybean development than the amount.  Starting to see a little bit of corn harvest in Texas after a growing season of near-perfect conditions that included abundant precipitation and ideal temperatures during pollination.  Market volatility in July was much less compared to June but expect the market to have some larger daily moves the closer we get to August 12 where we could see a possible yield change on the monthly USDA WASDE report.  According to Reuters, Brazilian farmers are expected to increase their soybean area for the 15th consecutive year by 4% to a total of roughly 100 million acres.  Demand for old crop corn continues to slip with China cancelling shipments.  Weekly closes: cash corn 2 lower, new crop corn down 1, cash and new crop beans both down 8 cents on the week.  Some weather models are showing high temperatures for our area in the triple digits end of next week but forecasts have yet to reflect this.  Everyone try your best to enjoy the smoky, mild-temperature weekend!

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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.