7/30/2021

Jul 30, 2021


7/30/2021
A big risk-off day to finish our week and the trading month as rain showers pushed across parts of South Dakota, Iowa, and the southern half of Minnesota throughout the day.  The timing of this rain (going into August) is probably more important for soybean development than the amount.  Starting to see a little bit of corn harvest in Texas after a growing season of near-perfect conditions that included abundant precipitation and ideal temperatures during pollination.  Market volatility in July was much less compared to June but expect the market to have some larger daily moves the closer we get to August 12 where we could see a possible yield change on the monthly USDA WASDE report.  According to Reuters, Brazilian farmers are expected to increase their soybean area for the 15th consecutive year by 4% to a total of roughly 100 million acres.  Demand for old crop corn continues to slip with China cancelling shipments.  Weekly closes: cash corn 2 lower, new crop corn down 1, cash and new crop beans both down 8 cents on the week.  Some weather models are showing high temperatures for our area in the triple digits end of next week but forecasts have yet to reflect this.  Everyone try your best to enjoy the smoky, mild-temperature weekend!

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.