7/30/2021

Jul 30, 2021


7/30/2021
A big risk-off day to finish our week and the trading month as rain showers pushed across parts of South Dakota, Iowa, and the southern half of Minnesota throughout the day.  The timing of this rain (going into August) is probably more important for soybean development than the amount.  Starting to see a little bit of corn harvest in Texas after a growing season of near-perfect conditions that included abundant precipitation and ideal temperatures during pollination.  Market volatility in July was much less compared to June but expect the market to have some larger daily moves the closer we get to August 12 where we could see a possible yield change on the monthly USDA WASDE report.  According to Reuters, Brazilian farmers are expected to increase their soybean area for the 15th consecutive year by 4% to a total of roughly 100 million acres.  Demand for old crop corn continues to slip with China cancelling shipments.  Weekly closes: cash corn 2 lower, new crop corn down 1, cash and new crop beans both down 8 cents on the week.  Some weather models are showing high temperatures for our area in the triple digits end of next week but forecasts have yet to reflect this.  Everyone try your best to enjoy the smoky, mild-temperature weekend!

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.