Grain > Commentary > 7-29-2024

7/29/2024

Jul 29, 2024

Just a simple change towards "non-threatening" in the weather forecasts has sent the market into sell-off mode again.  Corn and soybeans gapped lower on the Sunday night open and spent the remainder of the session recovering.  Soybeans could have fared much worse, trading 30 lower before climbing out of the gutter to close 9 lower.  Corn was negative until noon and managed a modest 2 cent gain on the day.  Weekly export inspections were in line with expectations at 1.058 mln tonnes of corn and 403k tonnes of soybeans shipped last week.  Corn narrows its deficit to 39 million bushels behind target pace and soybeans maintain their 23-million-bushel surplus.  There were no USDA sale announcements this morning.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.