7/29/2022

Jul 29, 2022


7/29/2022
Weather continues to drive the bus and Sunday nights update will decide if the rally continues next week.  We did have a sale of 132,000 metric tons of beans to unknown today, which also fueled the market this morning.  Beans finished well off their highs for the day, likely on nervousness over the weekend.  For the week corn futures were up .52 and beans futures were up 1.53.  Thats a lot of weather premium, which means we have a lot of risk Sunday night.  Buckle in for the ride.  Basis locally feels toppy in corn and after watching bean basis break the last couple weeks it makes me nervous.  If you have any old crop corn left be careful because once the local ethanol plants get covered it's game over.  The $1 premium in old crop corn compared to new crop will disappear and it can happen in a hurry.  If you don't want to price the grain because the futures are moving higher then please consider a basis contract, which gives you until the end of August to get it priced.  The next target levels to take a look at are Dec corn at 6.53 futures and Nov beans at 15.22 futures.   Have a good Weekend!!

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Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
Aug 30, 2024
Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales...