7/29/2022

Jul 29, 2022


7/29/2022
Weather continues to drive the bus and Sunday nights update will decide if the rally continues next week.  We did have a sale of 132,000 metric tons of beans to unknown today, which also fueled the market this morning.  Beans finished well off their highs for the day, likely on nervousness over the weekend.  For the week corn futures were up .52 and beans futures were up 1.53.  Thats a lot of weather premium, which means we have a lot of risk Sunday night.  Buckle in for the ride.  Basis locally feels toppy in corn and after watching bean basis break the last couple weeks it makes me nervous.  If you have any old crop corn left be careful because once the local ethanol plants get covered it's game over.  The $1 premium in old crop corn compared to new crop will disappear and it can happen in a hurry.  If you don't want to price the grain because the futures are moving higher then please consider a basis contract, which gives you until the end of August to get it priced.  The next target levels to take a look at are Dec corn at 6.53 futures and Nov beans at 15.22 futures.   Have a good Weekend!!

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May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.