7/29/2022

Jul 29, 2022


7/29/2022
Weather continues to drive the bus and Sunday nights update will decide if the rally continues next week.  We did have a sale of 132,000 metric tons of beans to unknown today, which also fueled the market this morning.  Beans finished well off their highs for the day, likely on nervousness over the weekend.  For the week corn futures were up .52 and beans futures were up 1.53.  Thats a lot of weather premium, which means we have a lot of risk Sunday night.  Buckle in for the ride.  Basis locally feels toppy in corn and after watching bean basis break the last couple weeks it makes me nervous.  If you have any old crop corn left be careful because once the local ethanol plants get covered it's game over.  The $1 premium in old crop corn compared to new crop will disappear and it can happen in a hurry.  If you don't want to price the grain because the futures are moving higher then please consider a basis contract, which gives you until the end of August to get it priced.  The next target levels to take a look at are Dec corn at 6.53 futures and Nov beans at 15.22 futures.   Have a good Weekend!!

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.