7/28/2023

We end the market week on the down side with corn and soybeans both giving up double-digits on Friday. Grains did get a quick shot of life mid-session with some new activity between Ukraine and Russia but trade seems satisfied with the market and comfortable with the risk premiums priced in given our weather and current demand. Any fresh buying on this morning's headline was quickly washed out and we returned to our short-term trend lower. The USDA hit the wire again with three soybean sale announcements that totaled over 900k tonnes (33.3 mln bushels) at 8 a.m. this morning. For delivery during the 2023/24 marketing year: 325,000 tonnes to China, 171,460 tonnes to Mexico, and 413,000 tonnes to unknown. Cash soybean basis continues to melt as we near a planned maintenance period ahead of new crop for crushers. Looking back over how we traded June and July; corn and soybeans seem to have fallen into more seasonal-like trends. Barring any surprises, funds and speculators may be content to let grains drift going forward into the harvest period, allowing themselves an opportunity to consider how the crop may finish.

Today’s Russia/Ukraine news created a quick rally in corn of 8 cents within 10 minutes but was over about as quick as it started. Weak looking finish for grains today.