Jul 28, 2022

The rally rolls on for corn and soybeans with money continuing to buy the early August weather forecast.  Weekly export sales were within their respective ranges for old crop corn and soybeans with 150k tonnes of corn sold and soybeans seeing a 59k tonnes net cancellation.  That is just a little over half of what is needed weekly through the end of August to meet the 2021-22 USDA export target for old crop corn.  New crop corn sales underperformed with 194k tonnes sold and new crop soybean sales came in way over the top estimate with 749k tonnes sold.  China was the featured buyer of new crop soybeans last week.  This is probably where most of our net cancellations of old crop have gone.  It's beginning to feel like our ending stocks are likely higher than what the USDA is telling us with end users seeming to have no trouble finding it.  In my opinion, there is real potential any yield cuts in USDA reports for the 2022 crop get washed out by an increase in the 2021/22 ending stocks.  Brazil has corn piled up from a record crop along with soybeans still available to sell and ship and, at some point, the grain stuck in Ukraine will be moved.  Any large U.S. export program may not be here for new crop like we have seen the last 2 years and we may have to look out into 2023 to find some significant business.

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