Grain > Commentary > 7-27-2022

7/27/2022

Jul 27, 2022

7/27/2022
Corn and soybeans continue to climb through the mid-week point.  Trade shook off some overnight weakness to post modest gains of 2-3 cents in corn and soybeans put together their third consecutive double-digit higher close.  Fundamentals remain almost entirely unchanged from last week.  This week's rally in corn and soybeans is simply money trading some extended weather outlooks for the beginning of August.  Demand is stagnant and overall, the U.S. crop is probably not as bad as some want others to believe.  Weekly ethanol data showed output and stocks both off from last week with a 13,000 barrel/day decline in production to 1.02 million bpd and 225,000 barrels off of the stock number to 23.33 million barrels.  Brazil's second crop is reported to be 62% complete by AgRural (53% last week, 39% last year).  This rally in soybeans provides an excellent opportunity to unload any old crop still left unpriced.  At the very least, fixing basis on any remaining unpriced old crop corn or soybeans, either in the bin or on storage in town, is recommended.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.