7/27/2021

Jul 27, 2021


7/27/2021
Trade was almost the mirror opposite of the prior day.  We started off strong overnight, with both old and new crop corn and beans gapping higher to start.  Crop conditions ratings came in lower than last week after it was expected they would be unchanged, with the US corn condition dropping 1% to 64% good/excellent and soybeans were seen at 58% g/e vs 60% g/e the week prior.  Values held for the duration of the night session but strength faded shortly after the 8:30 market open.  I'm not expecting much for fireworks in the corn market going into harvest.  Funds typically do not add to their length this time of year and the weather already rallied us for the better part of July.  Will rain still help? Yes, but the drought can mostly be considered old news for this year's corn crop.  With some early crop tour reports coming in, areas of Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri are hovering around either side of their record yields.  Soybeans still have strong underlying support from the weather but the crop still has some potential to push for bigger yields, yet.  Looks like we have one more hot day ahead of us tomorrow and then we will return to more seasonably average temperatures.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.