7/27/2021

Jul 27, 2021


7/27/2021
Trade was almost the mirror opposite of the prior day.  We started off strong overnight, with both old and new crop corn and beans gapping higher to start.  Crop conditions ratings came in lower than last week after it was expected they would be unchanged, with the US corn condition dropping 1% to 64% good/excellent and soybeans were seen at 58% g/e vs 60% g/e the week prior.  Values held for the duration of the night session but strength faded shortly after the 8:30 market open.  I'm not expecting much for fireworks in the corn market going into harvest.  Funds typically do not add to their length this time of year and the weather already rallied us for the better part of July.  Will rain still help? Yes, but the drought can mostly be considered old news for this year's corn crop.  With some early crop tour reports coming in, areas of Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri are hovering around either side of their record yields.  Soybeans still have strong underlying support from the weather but the crop still has some potential to push for bigger yields, yet.  Looks like we have one more hot day ahead of us tomorrow and then we will return to more seasonably average temperatures.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.