7/27/2021

Jul 27, 2021


7/27/2021
Trade was almost the mirror opposite of the prior day.  We started off strong overnight, with both old and new crop corn and beans gapping higher to start.  Crop conditions ratings came in lower than last week after it was expected they would be unchanged, with the US corn condition dropping 1% to 64% good/excellent and soybeans were seen at 58% g/e vs 60% g/e the week prior.  Values held for the duration of the night session but strength faded shortly after the 8:30 market open.  I'm not expecting much for fireworks in the corn market going into harvest.  Funds typically do not add to their length this time of year and the weather already rallied us for the better part of July.  Will rain still help? Yes, but the drought can mostly be considered old news for this year's corn crop.  With some early crop tour reports coming in, areas of Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri are hovering around either side of their record yields.  Soybeans still have strong underlying support from the weather but the crop still has some potential to push for bigger yields, yet.  Looks like we have one more hot day ahead of us tomorrow and then we will return to more seasonably average temperatures.

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.