7/25/2024

Jul 25, 2024


Corn and soybeans performed solid again on Thursday and are close to putting together one of the better weeks that we have seen in quite some time. Corn failed to take out the previous day's high for the first time this week but continues to steadily climb the ladder with a series of higher lows. We were also able to recover nicely from a midday sell-off. New crop export sale bookings continue to grow in volume. The USDA confirmed the sale of 264,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 2024/25 marketing year this morning. Weekly export sales: old crop corn midrange at 331.4k tonnes, old crop soybeans missed low with 88.6k tonnes sold, new crop corn outperforms expectations with 745.2k tonnes, new crop soybean sales on the high end at 829.7k tonnes. Old crop sales paces: corn export sales match the pace needed to meet the USDA export target but shipment pace is short by 42 million bushels; soybean export sales are short by 48 million bushels but actual shipments exceed the pace needed by 23 million bushels.

November soybeans with a friendly set up on the chart. Today’s outside reversal higher held on to close above the 20-day moving average. If you STILL have old crop to clean up or are behind in new crop sales, here is an opportunity to target a bounce. Target 1: 10.95 Nov futures for old or new crop sales. If trade is willing to take November beans back into 1100 territory, the 1125-1130 futures area is the second target for new crop sales.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.