Grain > Commentary > 7-25-2023

7/25/2023

Jul 25, 2023

7/25/2023
Corn and soybeans looked like they were going to continue marching higher following the overnight open but had flipped to red by midnight.  December corn traded down to 15 cents lower and November soybeans as much as 22 cents lower before climbing back towards unchanged throughout the day.  Corn ranged from 2-3 cents lower and soybeans 4-5 cents lower at the close.  This solid recovery off the daily lows for both offers a strong/friendly look on the charts.  Immediate risk premium (weather/Russia) is priced in for now and corn needs to close above the 200-day moving averages to continue higher.  November soybeans matched a 14-month high yesterday and is still within 16 cents of that level after today's session.  The USDA weekly crop conditions report was mostly as expected.  Corn conditions remained unchanged at 57% good/excellent and soybeans seen as good/excellent was lowered 1 point to 54%.  Overall, Tuesday was slow for market news but river traffic has reportedly resumed along the Danube, just one day after supposed heavy Russian bombing.

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.