Grain > Commentary > 7-25-2023

7/25/2023

Jul 25, 2023

7/25/2023
Corn and soybeans looked like they were going to continue marching higher following the overnight open but had flipped to red by midnight.  December corn traded down to 15 cents lower and November soybeans as much as 22 cents lower before climbing back towards unchanged throughout the day.  Corn ranged from 2-3 cents lower and soybeans 4-5 cents lower at the close.  This solid recovery off the daily lows for both offers a strong/friendly look on the charts.  Immediate risk premium (weather/Russia) is priced in for now and corn needs to close above the 200-day moving averages to continue higher.  November soybeans matched a 14-month high yesterday and is still within 16 cents of that level after today's session.  The USDA weekly crop conditions report was mostly as expected.  Corn conditions remained unchanged at 57% good/excellent and soybeans seen as good/excellent was lowered 1 point to 54%.  Overall, Tuesday was slow for market news but river traffic has reportedly resumed along the Danube, just one day after supposed heavy Russian bombing.

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7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.