7/25/2023

Jul 25, 2023


7/25/2023
Corn and soybeans looked like they were going to continue marching higher following the overnight open but had flipped to red by midnight.  December corn traded down to 15 cents lower and November soybeans as much as 22 cents lower before climbing back towards unchanged throughout the day.  Corn ranged from 2-3 cents lower and soybeans 4-5 cents lower at the close.  This solid recovery off the daily lows for both offers a strong/friendly look on the charts.  Immediate risk premium (weather/Russia) is priced in for now and corn needs to close above the 200-day moving averages to continue higher.  November soybeans matched a 14-month high yesterday and is still within 16 cents of that level after today's session.  The USDA weekly crop conditions report was mostly as expected.  Corn conditions remained unchanged at 57% good/excellent and soybeans seen as good/excellent was lowered 1 point to 54%.  Overall, Tuesday was slow for market news but river traffic has reportedly resumed along the Danube, just one day after supposed heavy Russian bombing.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.