7/24/2024

Jul 24, 2024


Corn and soybeans finished in opposite directions on Wednesday.  Corn had worked its way to as much as 7 higher and soybeans topped out at 5 higher around the midday point.  We began sliding away from those highs and it was obvious some hedge pressure was beginning to weigh on the market some.  Corn held on to close 1 higher but soybeans melted away further without much of a fight, finishing 11 lower on the day.  The past two sessions we have closed a fair amount off the highs but have managed some small gains in corn.  This price action can indicate there are several taking advantage of this week's bounce to do some marketing.  We haven't held onto the highs this week but corn has rallied as much as 21 cents and soybeans as much as 45 cents.  The only thing fresh for the market today was just the weekly ethanol grind numbers.  Production dipped 11,000 barrels/day from the previous week, down to 1.095 mln bpd.  Stocks increased 500k barrels to 23.7 mln bbls.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.