7/24/2023

Jul 24, 2023


7/24/2023
Hot temps and dry forecasts combined with Russia conducting strikes on Ukrainian export facilities send corn, soybeans, and wheat all sharply higher to start our week. Wheat featured some locked-limit higher trade while corn and soybean enjoyed gains of over 30 cents on the day. The USDA announced a sale this morning of 121,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/2024 marketing year. Analysts are not expecting much change in this week's crop conditions report and expect soybeans to be unchanged and the good/excellent rating in corn up 1 point. Weekly export inspections were within expectations for corn and soybeans with 310k tonnes of corn and 283k tonnes of soybeans shipped last week. The 310k tonnes of corn was the 2nd lowest total of the marketing year. Following the seasonal pattersn, soybean inspections have potential to see a quick increase as harvest in the south gears up.

Corn keeps chugging higher on a nice sustained rally beginning back mid-June. Today we came about half of a penny short of hitting an important retracement level and touching the 200-day moving average near 573. Trade through and hold above the 200-day and we can likely revisit the 600’0 mark, if not, we will trade back near the 530 area.
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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.