7/23/2021

Jul 23, 2021


7/23/2021
Corn began the overnight session with some modest gains of around 5 cents but was unable to hold, going into the morning break in the red where soybeans had spent the entire session.  That weakness continued throughout the day where some surprise rain not in the forecast fell on various spots around the growing region.  With weather premiums priced into the market, seasonally slow export business for old crop and light numbers on the books for new crop soybean business has put pressure on soybean futures this week.  After showing some signs of strength, cash soybean basis has slipped with end-users now having their needs covered going into harvest.  Despite finishing the second of half this week lower, corn still has some bullish elements to it.  Question marks concerning the size of the Brazil and China corn crops may swing some business towards the US where corn demand is expected to be lower than last year.  We look to remain hot and dry going into next week.  Weekly closes are as follows: cash corn down 9 cents, new crop corn 7 lower, cash soybeans 60 lower, new crop soybeans down 35 cents.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.