7/23/2021

Jul 23, 2021


7/23/2021
Corn began the overnight session with some modest gains of around 5 cents but was unable to hold, going into the morning break in the red where soybeans had spent the entire session.  That weakness continued throughout the day where some surprise rain not in the forecast fell on various spots around the growing region.  With weather premiums priced into the market, seasonally slow export business for old crop and light numbers on the books for new crop soybean business has put pressure on soybean futures this week.  After showing some signs of strength, cash soybean basis has slipped with end-users now having their needs covered going into harvest.  Despite finishing the second of half this week lower, corn still has some bullish elements to it.  Question marks concerning the size of the Brazil and China corn crops may swing some business towards the US where corn demand is expected to be lower than last year.  We look to remain hot and dry going into next week.  Weekly closes are as follows: cash corn down 9 cents, new crop corn 7 lower, cash soybeans 60 lower, new crop soybeans down 35 cents.

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Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.