7/22/2024

A little change in some weather forecasts showing hot and dry across the corn belt is all it took to get the entirety of the grain complex to pop higher and get our week started off on the right foot. Corn and soybeans tested some fresh lows a few times over the past couple weeks and managed to avoid complete melt downs. A weather headline arrived just in time that may provide an opportunity to do some marketing at better prices. This bounce also matches a traditional "risk-on" move heading into August as the market looks to see how the U.S. crop will finish. We had flash sale announcement this morning from the USDA for 133,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2024/25 marketing year. Weekly export inspections were on the high-end of expectations for both corn and soybeans with 971k tonnes of corn and 327k tonnes of soybeans shipped last week. Marketing year shipment pace for corn is short of the USDA's new export target by 42 million bushels (this was a surplus prior to the July WASDE report). Shipment pace for soybeans remains unchanged at a 23-million-bushel surplus.

December corn broke out of its trend channel to the high side and continued higher throughout the session. We also appear to be bouncing off of the right shoulder in an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern. For those with old crop still unsold: pay attention to what we do at the 20-day moving average (418 area). If we can trade through that moving average, there is potential for the September contract to get us back to $4 cash corn. For new crop sales and HTA’s: Use the futures prices at the 38%, 50%, and 62% retracement as targets to take advantage of this bounce.