Jul 22, 2022

After trading 4-8 cents higher, corn succumbed to weakness and finished the week printing some fresh lows for the move. The pendulum swung the opposite way for soybeans, going from 13 cents down during overnight trade to 30 cents higher near the midday point and held on to double-digit gains into the weekend. Fresh news and fundamentals have been lacking the past two weeks which typically triggers risk-off in the markets. International Grains Council updated their global production estimates for corn and soybeans, marking corn output at 1.189 billion metric tons, down 1 million from June. This is down 31 mmt from last year, world carryout was left unchanged at 271 mln tonnes. IGC reduced their soybean production by 4 mln tonnes to 390. That is still 39 mmt higher than last year. The Sept 22: Dec 22 corn spread closed at a carry for the first time since December 18, 2020. The Dec22:Mar22 corn spread continues to give us our first opportunity in two years at picking up some decent carry by rolling hedges. We have been steadily trading a carry that would net 6 cents. Cash bean basis has fallen off greatly this week and its only matter of time before cash corn does the same once ethanol feels like they have good coverage into new crop.

November soybeans settled the week around $2.70/bushel off of the contract high. We are still out performing long term trend line support and $13.00 may be developing into a short term support level.

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