7/21/2021

Jul 21, 2021


7/21/2021
A quiet day in Chicago with corn trading a small 4 cent range after 9:30 this morning.  Soybean trade was also uneventful, working a 10 cent range from about 10:00am through the remainder of the day session.  Traders have been churning through the same headlines over the past week and there is a limit to what kind of weather premium we can currently squeeze out of the market.  It appeared managed money was gunning to fill the gap at 573’4 on the December corn chart at the 8:30 open this morning but they fell 1/2 cent short.  Ethanol numbers for the week showed output down 13,000 barrels/day to 1.03 million bpd and stocks increasing 1.38 mln bbls to 22.52 mln bbls.  After gaining about $1.50/bu over 7 consecutive higher closes, spring wheat became very vulnerable to profit taking and has been down hard the past 2 days.  September corn futures mark another day failing to hold ground above the 571 level.  Interestingly enough, the wildfire situation in Canada has damaged tracks and slowed down rail traffic with the number of railcars unloading at the Port of Vancouver down 77% from last year.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.