7/21/2021

Jul 21, 2021


7/21/2021
A quiet day in Chicago with corn trading a small 4 cent range after 9:30 this morning.  Soybean trade was also uneventful, working a 10 cent range from about 10:00am through the remainder of the day session.  Traders have been churning through the same headlines over the past week and there is a limit to what kind of weather premium we can currently squeeze out of the market.  It appeared managed money was gunning to fill the gap at 573’4 on the December corn chart at the 8:30 open this morning but they fell 1/2 cent short.  Ethanol numbers for the week showed output down 13,000 barrels/day to 1.03 million bpd and stocks increasing 1.38 mln bbls to 22.52 mln bbls.  After gaining about $1.50/bu over 7 consecutive higher closes, spring wheat became very vulnerable to profit taking and has been down hard the past 2 days.  September corn futures mark another day failing to hold ground above the 571 level.  Interestingly enough, the wildfire situation in Canada has damaged tracks and slowed down rail traffic with the number of railcars unloading at the Port of Vancouver down 77% from last year.

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.