7/21/2021

Jul 21, 2021


7/21/2021
A quiet day in Chicago with corn trading a small 4 cent range after 9:30 this morning.  Soybean trade was also uneventful, working a 10 cent range from about 10:00am through the remainder of the day session.  Traders have been churning through the same headlines over the past week and there is a limit to what kind of weather premium we can currently squeeze out of the market.  It appeared managed money was gunning to fill the gap at 573’4 on the December corn chart at the 8:30 open this morning but they fell 1/2 cent short.  Ethanol numbers for the week showed output down 13,000 barrels/day to 1.03 million bpd and stocks increasing 1.38 mln bbls to 22.52 mln bbls.  After gaining about $1.50/bu over 7 consecutive higher closes, spring wheat became very vulnerable to profit taking and has been down hard the past 2 days.  September corn futures mark another day failing to hold ground above the 571 level.  Interestingly enough, the wildfire situation in Canada has damaged tracks and slowed down rail traffic with the number of railcars unloading at the Port of Vancouver down 77% from last year.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.