7/21/2021

Jul 21, 2021


7/21/2021
A quiet day in Chicago with corn trading a small 4 cent range after 9:30 this morning.  Soybean trade was also uneventful, working a 10 cent range from about 10:00am through the remainder of the day session.  Traders have been churning through the same headlines over the past week and there is a limit to what kind of weather premium we can currently squeeze out of the market.  It appeared managed money was gunning to fill the gap at 573’4 on the December corn chart at the 8:30 open this morning but they fell 1/2 cent short.  Ethanol numbers for the week showed output down 13,000 barrels/day to 1.03 million bpd and stocks increasing 1.38 mln bbls to 22.52 mln bbls.  After gaining about $1.50/bu over 7 consecutive higher closes, spring wheat became very vulnerable to profit taking and has been down hard the past 2 days.  September corn futures mark another day failing to hold ground above the 571 level.  Interestingly enough, the wildfire situation in Canada has damaged tracks and slowed down rail traffic with the number of railcars unloading at the Port of Vancouver down 77% from last year.

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.