Grain > Commentary > 7-20-2023

7/20/2023

Jul 20, 2023

7/20/2023
Mixed action throughout the day on Thursday ends with corn 4-6 cents lower and soybeans spotted around from 3 higher to 5 lower.  The rally over the past week has been fueled by Russia headlines and weather forecasts.  Given the back-and-forth action today, we can assume trade feels that the proper amount weather risk premium is currently priced into the market.  Forecasts will need to either continue to extend the hot/dry bias or turn towards more mild temps with moisture for the market to fluctuate.  As always, the market also loves to trade any headline that includes Russia or Ukraine so any type of fresh story will have some weight on the market.  Weekly export sales were on the low end of expectations for old crop corn and soybeans with 237k tonnes of corn and 127k tonnes of soybeans sold last week.  New crop sales had a nice week with corn at the upper end of expectations at 495k tonnes and soybeans out-performing their expected volume at 760k tonnes.

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7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.