Grain > Commentary > 7-20-2023

7/20/2023

Jul 20, 2023

7/20/2023
Mixed action throughout the day on Thursday ends with corn 4-6 cents lower and soybeans spotted around from 3 higher to 5 lower.  The rally over the past week has been fueled by Russia headlines and weather forecasts.  Given the back-and-forth action today, we can assume trade feels that the proper amount weather risk premium is currently priced into the market.  Forecasts will need to either continue to extend the hot/dry bias or turn towards more mild temps with moisture for the market to fluctuate.  As always, the market also loves to trade any headline that includes Russia or Ukraine so any type of fresh story will have some weight on the market.  Weekly export sales were on the low end of expectations for old crop corn and soybeans with 237k tonnes of corn and 127k tonnes of soybeans sold last week.  New crop sales had a nice week with corn at the upper end of expectations at 495k tonnes and soybeans out-performing their expected volume at 760k tonnes.

outlook.png

Read More News

8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
8/12/2025
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
5/12/2025
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.