7/20/2022

Corn traded a 10-cent range and soybeans traded around 25 cents on what could be considered a relatively uneventful session. Trade was defensive following updated weather outlooks showing above average precipitation as a good possibility in the Eastern corn belt. The USDA announced a 2022/2023 soybean export sale this morning of 136,000 tonnes for delivery to China. It is rumored that China may have bought a much larger amount but no confirmation. It’s always good to see any export sale involving China but this business is mostly routine. Weekly ethanol data showed an increase in production of 29,000 barrels/day to 1.03 mln bpd and a 53,000-barrel decrease in stocks to 23.55 million barrels. On the board, most old and new crop trading months are currently below their 200-day moving averages and we are starting to see the beginnings of some further bearish patterns. In total, managed money is currently at its smallest net long position in corn since December of 2020. To see them liquidate as much of their position as they have and to have our futures still hanging on near $6 is impressive. Our futures were in the lower $4/bu level near the end of 2020.

Bear pennant setting up on corn and soybean daily charts.