7/2/2024

Jul 02, 2024


Corn and soybeans popped higher to begin overnight trade and were steady going into the morning break. 5-6 cent higher trade in corn and as much as 15 cent higher trade and soybeans was viewed just after 8:30 but the market immediately began slipping back from there. We closed with the front end higher out to March and May of 25 with the further deferred months ending red on the day. This is the first higher close higher in corn since June 18 and soybeans have traded 25-30 cents above their report-day lows. The USDA announced an old crop corn sale this morning for 100,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Colombia. Weekly crop conditions showed the good/excellent rating in corn dropping 2 points, trade had expected a 1-point drop. Soybean conditions were unchanged from last week, remaining at 67% good/excellent. Ratings are now within 1 point of last year at this time.

Corn has found some willing buyers at the lows and we have also had a pattern of higher lows during the past 3 sessions. If we get a correction from this oversold territory, anything near $4 cash needs to be sold hard.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.