7/2/2024

Jul 02, 2024


Corn and soybeans popped higher to begin overnight trade and were steady going into the morning break. 5-6 cent higher trade in corn and as much as 15 cent higher trade and soybeans was viewed just after 8:30 but the market immediately began slipping back from there. We closed with the front end higher out to March and May of 25 with the further deferred months ending red on the day. This is the first higher close higher in corn since June 18 and soybeans have traded 25-30 cents above their report-day lows. The USDA announced an old crop corn sale this morning for 100,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Colombia. Weekly crop conditions showed the good/excellent rating in corn dropping 2 points, trade had expected a 1-point drop. Soybean conditions were unchanged from last week, remaining at 67% good/excellent. Ratings are now within 1 point of last year at this time.

Corn has found some willing buyers at the lows and we have also had a pattern of higher lows during the past 3 sessions. If we get a correction from this oversold territory, anything near $4 cash needs to be sold hard.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.