Grain > Commentary > 7-2-2024

7/2/2024

Jul 02, 2024

Corn and soybeans popped higher to begin overnight trade and were steady going into the morning break. 5-6 cent higher trade in corn and as much as 15 cent higher trade and soybeans was viewed just after 8:30 but the market immediately began slipping back from there. We closed with the front end higher out to March and May of 25 with the further deferred months ending red on the day. This is the first higher close higher in corn since June 18 and soybeans have traded 25-30 cents above their report-day lows. The USDA announced an old crop corn sale this morning for 100,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Colombia. Weekly crop conditions showed the good/excellent rating in corn dropping 2 points, trade had expected a 1-point drop. Soybean conditions were unchanged from last week, remaining at 67% good/excellent. Ratings are now within 1 point of last year at this time.

Corn has found some willing buyers at the lows and we have also had a pattern of higher lows during the past 3 sessions. If we get a correction from this oversold territory, anything near $4 cash needs to be sold hard.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.