7/19/2022

Jul 19, 2022


7/19/2022
Corn recovered over a dime off of its daily lows but still finished down double-digits out to the July 2023 contract. Price action in soybeans was similar after trading 40 lower this morning and came back to finish within 17-22 cents of unchanged. A bit of a gut check reminder that a turn-around Tuesday can go both ways. Bulls and bears have struggled to sustain momentum in either direction over the past two weeks. USDA left the corn conditioned unchanged at 64% good/excellent, trade was expecting a decline of 1 point. Headlining the weekly update was a 4-point increase in the g/e rating in the Illinois corn crop from 66% to 70%. Soybean conditioned was lowered 1 point to 61% good/excellent. With a lack of rain this growing season, our late start to planting could end up being the best thing for our crop this year. Not much for fresh news today besides Egypt issuing a tender for wheat and then cancelling. U.S. was reported as the cheapest bid to Egypt which may have helped cap losses in the wheat today.

Estimated 3 day rain fall.
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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.