Grain > Commentary > 7-19-2021

7/19/2021

Jul 19, 2021

7/19/2021
After a strong showing overnight, corn and soybeans traded back and forth, spending a majority of the day session in the red with corn making a late push to finish fractionally higher on the day.  There was large outside market pressure today with the Dow and NASDAQ both taking big hits.  As of about 1:20pm today, the Dow was down 870 points and the NASDAQ was 155.50 points lower.  After matching the 2018 high a couple weeks ago, crude oil continues to retreat and hemorrhaged value today with the front month down about 5.35/barrel.  OPEC+ recently announced that they would be increasing production.  Weekly export inspections for corn, soybeans, and wheat were all within trade range estimates with 1.001 mln tonnes of corn, 144k tonnes of soybeans, and 491k tonnes of wheat inspected for export.  Corn and soybean condition on this week's crop progress report are both expected to increase by 1 point in the good/excellent category to 66% for corn and 60% for soybeans.  Another 1-point decline in the spring wheat condition is expected, down 15% g/e. 

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.