Grain > Commentary > 7-19-2021

7/19/2021

Jul 19, 2021

7/19/2021
After a strong showing overnight, corn and soybeans traded back and forth, spending a majority of the day session in the red with corn making a late push to finish fractionally higher on the day.  There was large outside market pressure today with the Dow and NASDAQ both taking big hits.  As of about 1:20pm today, the Dow was down 870 points and the NASDAQ was 155.50 points lower.  After matching the 2018 high a couple weeks ago, crude oil continues to retreat and hemorrhaged value today with the front month down about 5.35/barrel.  OPEC+ recently announced that they would be increasing production.  Weekly export inspections for corn, soybeans, and wheat were all within trade range estimates with 1.001 mln tonnes of corn, 144k tonnes of soybeans, and 491k tonnes of wheat inspected for export.  Corn and soybean condition on this week's crop progress report are both expected to increase by 1 point in the good/excellent category to 66% for corn and 60% for soybeans.  Another 1-point decline in the spring wheat condition is expected, down 15% g/e. 

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.