7/17/2023

Jul 17, 2023


7/17/2023
Corn and soybeans both gapped higher on the Sunday night open and it looked like we were going to be off to the races to start the week.  Analysts were leaning heavy on higher opening calls based on weather forecasts featuring hot and dry biases but the market drifted back towards unchanged and corn was trading around a nickel lower about one hour into the day session.  Soybeans were able to hold roughly half of their gains, finishing in 5-9 cent higher range.  Also deflating the bulls was a light weekly export inspections report.  Corn shipments were on the lower end of expectations at 364k tonnes and soybeans missed low with 156k tonnes shipped last week.  Shipment paces still slowed despite USDA's recent cut to export forecasts for corn and soybeans.  Corn export shipments are currently 35 million bushels behind the pace vs 18 million bushels the week prior.  Soybean shipments are now 35 million bushels ahead, down from 41 million bushels ahead the previous week.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.