7/17/2023

Jul 17, 2023


7/17/2023
Corn and soybeans both gapped higher on the Sunday night open and it looked like we were going to be off to the races to start the week.  Analysts were leaning heavy on higher opening calls based on weather forecasts featuring hot and dry biases but the market drifted back towards unchanged and corn was trading around a nickel lower about one hour into the day session.  Soybeans were able to hold roughly half of their gains, finishing in 5-9 cent higher range.  Also deflating the bulls was a light weekly export inspections report.  Corn shipments were on the lower end of expectations at 364k tonnes and soybeans missed low with 156k tonnes shipped last week.  Shipment paces still slowed despite USDA's recent cut to export forecasts for corn and soybeans.  Corn export shipments are currently 35 million bushels behind the pace vs 18 million bushels the week prior.  Soybean shipments are now 35 million bushels ahead, down from 41 million bushels ahead the previous week.

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.