7/17/2023

Jul 17, 2023


7/17/2023
Corn and soybeans both gapped higher on the Sunday night open and it looked like we were going to be off to the races to start the week.  Analysts were leaning heavy on higher opening calls based on weather forecasts featuring hot and dry biases but the market drifted back towards unchanged and corn was trading around a nickel lower about one hour into the day session.  Soybeans were able to hold roughly half of their gains, finishing in 5-9 cent higher range.  Also deflating the bulls was a light weekly export inspections report.  Corn shipments were on the lower end of expectations at 364k tonnes and soybeans missed low with 156k tonnes shipped last week.  Shipment paces still slowed despite USDA's recent cut to export forecasts for corn and soybeans.  Corn export shipments are currently 35 million bushels behind the pace vs 18 million bushels the week prior.  Soybean shipments are now 35 million bushels ahead, down from 41 million bushels ahead the previous week.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.