7/15/2024

Jul 15, 2024


What goes up must come down. Absolutely no fight from the buy side with corn, soybeans, and wheat all breaking lower to begin the week. Corn and soybeans also saw some fresh lows, trading at levels not seen since harvest in 2020. Much like we saw the funds relentless adding length from late 2020 into the summer of 2022, we're seeing the mirror image with some violent moves to the downside. NOPA crush for June was reported with 175.599 mln bushels of soybeans crushed during the month, below the average guess o 177.936 mln bu but was still a record for the month. Soy oil stocks came in at 1.622 bln lbs, trade average guess was 1.669 bln lbs. Weekly export inspections for corn came in at the tip-top of expectations with 1.079 mln tonnes shipped. Soybean inspections missed low with 169k tonnes shipped. Prices continue to search for levels that will spark export demand and it will take some significant fresh export business or weather event to scare the funds into offsetting a chunk of their short positions.

Front month contract (Sep 24) for corn closed below the 393’0 level. 393’0 was the floor for our breakout move back in late 2020

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.