7/15/2022

Jul 15, 2022


7/15/2022
Corn and soybeans traded higher overnight and bounced around on either side of unchanged through the day session, eventually finishing mixed with 1-2 cent net changes on the day.  It was a strange day for reports and news as it appeared the NOPA crush figures for June were leaked before 8 a.m.  Bushels crushed was reported at 164.677 mln bu, slightly above the trade guess of 164.484 mln bu.  Soyoil stocks came in at 1.767 bln lbs, above the trade guess of 1.704 bln lbs.  The USDA confirmed the sale of 133,000 tonnes of corn to China for delivery in the 2022/23 marketing year.  This was the first export sale announcement since June 17 but the USDA later retracted this sale "based on updated information received form the exporter."  One of the big red flags has been the lack of fresh corn demand given the nearly $1.50/bu price break over the past 4 weeks.  Buyers are more than willing to watch values erode right now but prices have begun stabilizing alongside crude oil. 

The Sep 22:Dec 22 corn spread is trading near even money for the first time since fall. The spread weakened following Tuesday’s WASDE report which showed bigger corn ending stocks for 2021/22.
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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.