7/15/2021

Jul 15, 2021


7/15/2021
Corn and soybean trade was quiet overnight and throughout the day, staying within the relatively moderate daily ranges of 10 cents in corn and 20 cents in soybeans.  A lot of focus has been on put on the sudden return of hot and dry weather to the western corn belt with most wondering if the eastern corn belt can make up for it.  In my opinion, for whatever that is worth, given the current conditions at this stage of the game, the eastern corn belt can still do that.  Out of the top five corn producing states, Minnesota is the only one trade is looking at to suffer a significant yield loss due to lack of precipitation, the other 4 are in fine shape.  NOPA soybean crush for June was reported today, posting a number of 152.41 mln bushels, well below the average trade guess of 159.48 and the low estimate of 155.5.  This was the lowest monthly volume since June of 2019.  Processors saw tighter supplies and higher raw material cost as an opportunity to perform service and maintenance.  The weekly export sales for last week didn't offer much for excitement.  Routine sales of 139k tonnes of old crop corn and 22k tonnes of old crop beans; both on the bottom side of the estimates.  New crop sales were poor with 133k tonnes of corn and 126k tonnes of wheat both below the low estimate.  New crop soybeans crept into their target range with 291k tonnes sold.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.