Grain > Commentary > 7-14-2023

7/14/2023

Jul 14, 2023

7/14/2023
Corn goes into the weekend with a firm 13 cent higher finish on Friday.  Soybeans worked a 30-cent range throughout the session and provided plenty of opportunity on both sides of unchanged before settling 1-9 higher.  Trade was not afraid to buy going into the weekend despite weather forecasts adding precipitation into next week.  A quick look at the corn charts shows that we have a nice setup and some room for a decent rally if these rains don't materialize.  Soybeans also have potential to break out higher with the charts forming a potential bull pennant going back to the May low.  It will be important to take notes on how November soybeans want to act inside of the 1390-1400 area if we are able to get back to those price levels.  Catching up on sales when hovering near 1400 futures isn't a terrible idea.  New crop corn in the $5.00-5.10 range is a realistic target, as well.

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7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.